Summary

The article considers the trends formed in Russian population size and structure over last 25 years. The peculiarities of the prospects of population size dynamics up to 2050 are analyzed in details, corresponding to three demographic forecast scenarios (low, medium, and high), as well as the implications of population aging and growth of the demographic load.

The Declaration on the Cessation of the Existence of the USSR was adopted on December 26, 1991. The USSR population made up 290.1 million persons in the early 1991. At present the population of the 15 countries on the post-Soviet space makes up about 295 million.

After the Soviet Union collapse, Russia experienced  the population decline during 20 years. In 1992-2012 the mortality rates exceeded birth rates in the country. 33 million people were born and  more than 46 million died during this period. The difference between live births and deaths in Russia amounted to about 13.3 million people. This decline by nearly 61% was compensated by immigration growth amounted to 8.1 million people.

Since 2009 a low population growth has been recovered at the expense of replacement migration (100-300 thousands per year). In 2013-2016 small natural increase was recorded. Population size (as of  January 1, 2017) made up 146.8 (including 2.3 million people in the Crimea, merged in the Russian Federation).

Despite the significant improvement of the demographic situation in the past 10 years, the threat of depopulation has been remained. Such a prospect is determined by established trends of demographic development in Russia:

• The population age structure is strongly deformed, there exist large differences in the generation numbers born in different years. 
• Decrease in working-age population number. Population aging still takes place, as does growing number and share in total population of aged persons and the dependency load.
• Despite its growth in the last decade, birth rate remains below replacement level. The share of out of wedlock births, although declined over the last decade, has remained more than 20%.
• Mortality rate, particularly of working-age men, has remained high. A big difference in mortality rates and life expectancy for men and women (about 11 years) still takes place.
• Life expectancy, despite its growth in the last decade (up to 72 years in 2016), is significantly below the indicators of developed countries, especially for the male population.
• There has remained a substantial labor market dependence on external labor migrants while internal mobility has been at a relatively low level. Migration increase amounting approximately to 250-300 thousand people would allow to replace the natural decrease during several years, however, the return to depopulation is likely inevitable. 
• Between 2006-2016 the number of working-age people has already declined by 6 million, from maximum of 90.2 to 84.2 million. The number of working age population (medium scenario projection) will decrease by further 5 million to 2024, amounting to 79.2 million.

After 2035, a new phase of population reduction will begin to 71.5 million. By 2051, this may become a serious obstacle to economic growth, if adequate productivity increase due to technological modernization and robot-based production would not be achieved.

A small increase in the number of working-age population is possible to obtain in the second half of the 2020-es which corresponds to the average scenario of Russian Statistical Agency (Rosstat) forecast. The next wave of large-scale population decline in working ages is expected in 2040-es in Russia. By this time, migration reserves at the expense of former Central Asia republics may seriously diminish. That would also be a major challenge to economic development.

The growth in the number and share of aged and very old people has been continued. The share of persons over working age amounted to 24.56% at the beginning of 2016. Medium Rosstat projection scenario shows that in 2019 the proportion of pensioners achieves 26%, in 2022 - 27%, in 2028 it will exceed 28%, and in 2037 - 30% with further rise up to 32.7% in 2048-2051.

Rate of demographic dependence (children and pensioners per 1000 population in working age) will grow in the coming years, amounting to 740 in 2016, 825-826 in 2020 and 878-880 in 2026-2027.

In the mid century (in case of current retirement age) it will exceed 1000 adversely affecting labor market formation and economic growth. The ratio of the working-age population and pensioners will depend therefore on the governmental decisions concerning the increase in retirement age.

Negative demographic trends on the labor market can be mitigated with productivity increase and growth in the number of employed persons over retirement age as well as with attracting temporary labor migrants, preferably qualified and those meeting the needs of the labor market.

Responding to demographic challenges will require strengthening measures for contributing the reduction in mortality rate and continuing fertility support programs.

New strategic targeted indicators were adopted aimed at mortality reduction and life expectancy increase, including: achieving life expectancy no less than 76 years old by 2025; healthy life expectancy - 66 years by 2025; reducing mortality rate of working aged to 380 on 100 thousand persons of corresponding age by 2025. To achieve these goals will mean an essential factor for economic development.

In our opinion, taking into account population factor will improve management competence, allow previewing emerging challenges, risks and imbalances, and respectively, to evaluate the effects, and propose mechanisms and measures to prevent or mitigate crisis situations.